Forecasting COVID-19 Hospital Resource Use and Deaths

A study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was published in MedRxiv (pronounced “Med Archive”) and forecasts the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 in the US. Its forecast model uses data from the World Health Organization and local and national governments to estimate deaths and hospital resource utilization over the next 4 months. Hospital resource utilization is stratified by all hospital beds, ICU beds, and invasive ventilators. At a national level, resource utilization and deaths are forecasted to peak on April 16, 2020.

The projections can also be filtered down to a state level where forecasted hospital resource utilization is additionally displayed against capacity. The state-specific forecasts are displayed alongside state-mandated social distancing measures including stay at home orders, closures of schools and non-essential services, and travel restrictions. The models are also updated as new information becomes available. A FAQ page provides many additional insights into the research. Hopefully hospitals and health systems will use these forecasts to close or mitigate gaps in hospital capacity since peak volumes are only about 2 weeks away. Are the hospitals in your state prepared?