COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

Although Thanksgiving is behind us, we are still in the midst of the holiday season. It is a festive time of year that is normally accompanied by personal and work-related social gatherings. Many people are cutting down on social events either voluntarily or due to city-wide stay at home orders like the one that was issued in Los Angeles on November 27.

However, gatherings of individuals from different households are still being organized and attended across the country. If you are thinking about organizing an event or considering attendance at an event where there will be 10 or more participants, did you know that you can estimate the chance that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present? The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool uses county-level COVID-19 data, in combination with the number of attendees. To get your estimate, simply move the “Event Size” slider to approximate the number of attendees and navigate on the map to the county where the event is to take place.

While the tool is intended to be simple to use, it has limitations like any other predictive model. Since we don’t test every American on a regular basis, the actual number of COVID-19 cases is greater than the number of documented cases. It has been estimated that for each confirmed case of COVID-19, there are 10 times as many unreported cases. Another study estimates that there are anywhere from 6 to 24 times the number of unreported cases for each reported case. Hence, the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool includes a variable called “Ascertainment Bias” which denotes the number of actual cases for each documented case. The tool defaults to an ascertainment bias of 5 (i.e., for each documented case, there are 5 times as many actual cases) but allows you to change it to 10.

The tool has many other features including global risk estimates, real-time US and state-level estimates, and others. Read more about the risk assessment tool in this article, or click on the “About” tab in the tool to see data sources and links to articles about the tool. Stay safe everyone!

LAUSD COVID-19 Testing Revisited

Several weeks ago, I wrote about the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) COVID-19 Testing Program which was also mentioned in an article in the New England Journal of Medicine. I have two experiences to share about the testing program from a parent perspective. The first is the usability of the appointment scheduler, and the second is testing process itself.

LAUSD COVID-19 Test Appointment Scheduler

I had received multiple email messages to proceed with scheduling an appoint for SARS-CoV-2 testing, and like any responsible parent, I complied. In a dedicated LAUSD COVID-19 test appointment scheduling website, parents are guided through a multi-step wizard interface to enter extensive information about their children, along with symptoms, exposures, testing history, and other questions. The same questions were repeated for parents who were also advised to get tested under the program. Only after completing all the questions and consenting to the test process are users allowed to choose a testing location and an appointment slot. The user interface for the appointment scheduler was quite simple—there were 2 dropdown menus, one for the Test Date and another for Test Time.

But that’s where the simplicity ended. After selecting a date from the first dropdown menu, the system would pause for 5-10 seconds while it loaded the time slots. Upon selecting a time slot and pressing the “Next” button, the system would pause for another 5-10 seconds, only to say that the time slot was not available. Naturally, one would try to pick another time slot and re-submit. Although another time slot could be selected, the “Next” button would remain grayed out, and the only way to pick another slot was to pick a different date in the first dropdown menu, wait for the system to load the time slots, re-select the original date, wait again, and then try another time slot.

The first time I attempted to schedule an appointment, I spent 20-30 minutes trying to pick different dates and times, only to be told that each slot I picked was unavailable, and eventually I gave up. As the days and weeks went by, I tried another 3-4 times, with each new session requiring that I start from the beginning of the wizard, re-entering all of my child’s information from scratch, and eventually giving up after being unable to find an open slot. I reported this issue to LAUSD and recommended that when displaying dates and times, the system should only show AVAILABLE dates and times. I also tried to work around the system by contacting the person in charge of the testing site at my daughter’s school, but I was told that in order to be properly registered, I must go through the website. When I tried again a few weeks later, they had finally fixed the site, and the dropdown menu options were constrained to only display open time slots. With the fix in place, I was finally able to successfully schedule an appointment on my “first try” (for that day anyway).

COVID-19 Testing Process

In my previous post, I briefly mentioned the contract that LAUSD awarded to SummerBio for SARS-CoV-2 testing (note that SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease, and you may see “SARS-CoV-2 testing” and “COVID-19 testing” used interchangeably). On the day of our appointment, we arrived at the testing site and noticed prominent signage about the LAUSD COVID-19 testing program:

After signing in, we were provided instructions for how to collect nasal (formally referred to as “anterior nares”) samples. Those instructions are summarized here:

Nasopharyngeal specimens were preferred at the beginning of the pandemic, but other specimen sources have since become acceptable alternatives, as outlined by the CDC with recommendations from earlier today displayed here, as guidance is subject to change:

One big advantage of the SummerBio nasal collection kits is that they can be self-collected (i.e., by the patient) and are less invasive than other collection methods. On the other hand, nasopharyngeal collection must be performed by trained personnel and often results in the patient coughing directly onto the person collecting the sample. In any case, the friendly staff were wearing personal protective equipment.

We were asked to lower our masks to expose our noses but to keep our mouths covered. The staff opened the test kit, we inserted the swab into our nostrils, rotated for 15 seconds, and repeated the process on the other side. The whole testing process took only about a minute. While we were told to expect test results within 48 hours, my daughter and I received our (negative) results later that same day.

Conclusions

Despite the arduous process of scheduling the appointment for the test, the actual testing process was seamless. I feel that LAUSD has taken heroic measures to understand COVID-19 from many angles (transmission, testing, contact tracing), educate students and families, and to execute on a complicated plan to safely return students to in-person instruction. However, the pandemic rages on, and the saga continues. I will likely write more about next steps for LAUSD students and families in the near future.

Goodbye Google Hangouts

Google recently announced that in early 2021 it will be sunsetting Google Hangouts, a service that enables users to place video and phone calls and send text messages. But unlike its decision to rescind its free unlimited storage space for photos, all of the features of Google Hangouts are and will continue to be available elsewhere.

Video calls are currently available in Google Meet and are free to all Google account holders. While the normal time limit for video calls is 60 minutes, Google has extended the time limit to a whopping 24 hours per video call to help people connect during the pandemic and has extended this promotion through March 31, 2021.

Phone calls and text messages are already available in Google Voice which is also free to all Google account holders.

Additionally, text messaging is currently available through Google Chat which is available through a paid G Suite account.

G Suite has recently been rebranded as Google Workspace and includes Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Chat, Meet and other features that are geared toward business customers. Starting next year, Chat will become a free service and will be integrated into Gmail and also available as a standalone app.

Confused? You’re not alone. To summarize options for that come with a free Google account, you can use Google Meet for video calls and Google Voice for phone calls right now. For text messages, you can use Google Hangouts until sometime in early 2021 and then transition to Google Chat when available or the chat function in Gmail when available. So there you have it—with all those options, now you have no excuse for not communicating with friends and family!

“Real-time” Video Conferencing—It’s All Relative

Video conferencing via FaceTime, Zoom, and numerous other applications is wonderful when you want to have a real-time conversation with co-workers, family, or friends. The COVID-19 pandemic has thrust many people into the technological world of video conferencing apps. In the process, we have pushed the limits of what video conferencing can do. One such limitation is related to live group performances, and it is the focus of this post.

Live group performances require that performers synchronize their performances—whether it be playing instruments, singing a song, or executing dance moves. When done in person, performers can see and hear each other in real time. However, when done via video conference, there is a slight delay between the time that an event occurs and the time that other participants see and hear the event. The lag time may only be a fraction of a second, but it is enough to throw a piano duet or a group of kids singing “Happy Birthday” into dyssynchrony. So while video conferencing works well for conversations because the lag time is barely perceptible, things that require precise timing like music and dance don’t work as well because video conferencing is not exactly achieved in real time but rather in near-real time.

What is the concept of “real time” anyway? I would argue that if you consider the physical laws of the universe, it is difficult to synchronize any 2 events to occur at the exact same time because even when done in person, the speeds of sound and light have finite limits, so there is a slight delay between the event occurring and an observer in the same room perceiving the event to occur. However, from a practical perspective, the delays experienced in person are imperceptible and do not alter one’s sense of whether things are happening in real time, whereas internet-related delays may be perceived depending on the context. So I’d argue that the definition of “real time” is relative to the ability of an observer to detect a difference that has practical impact.

But I digress. Since we’ve established that music and dance performances are challenging to coordinate among multiple performers via video conferencing apps, I do have a couple of recommendations to share. For starters, let’s just acknowledge that video conferencing happens in near-real time. If all participants have the expectation that timing may be a little bit off, then we can accept the imperfect results for what they are. This may be perfectly fine for many informal gatherings, even if people plan to record and share their video conferences.

However, for situations where you need to sync performances for a higher quality video recording, there are some steps that you can take if you can do some preparation beforehand and have the means to do some video editing afterward. First you need to make sure that everyone is able to individually record their own performance and can perform at the exact same tempo. For groups singing a song and/or playing instruments, this might mean that everyone listens to the same song or the beat of a metronome via a headset and does their performance so that the video recording only picks up the performer’s audio. After everyone records and shares their individual performances, the clips can be imported into most movie editors, synchronized, and exported in a way that it looks like things were happening in real time.

While the video editing step is out of scope for this blog post, I’ll just say that video post-production work is correlated with the number of performances need to be synchronized into a single video. In all cases, I highly recommend writing out clear instructions that non-technical people can follow, and if getting things right is important, I also recommend rehearsals ahead of time to allow performers to get used to the technology that they will be using.

So in summary, while it is possible to sync performances in video post-production, consider all the prep work and video editing that must be done and whether you have the resources to do all the work. If you have school-aged children, you may have encountered these scenarios already. What additional tips might you have for people who want to record videos of group performances via video conference?

USPS Informed Delivery

If you have ever anxiously awaited the delivery of letter-sized mail through the United States Postal Service (USPS) and wondered if it will arrive soon, you may be interested in signing up for a USPS service called Informed Delivery. According to USPS, “Informed Delivery is a free and optional notification feature that gives residential consumers the ability to digitally preview their letter-sized mail and manage their packages scheduled to arrive soon… Users receive emails to the email address in their personal USPS.com® account containing grayscale images of the exterior, address side of up to 10 pieces of incoming letter-sized mail that is arriving soon.”

To register for this service, visit informeddelivery.usps.com and click the “Sign Up for Free” button. From there, you’ll need to verify the eligibility of your address, create a USPS account (if you don’t already have one), and verify your identity. Users will be able to receive email and/or text notifications and will also be able to access images on the Informed Delivery dashboard at informeddelivery.USPS.com.

Informed Delivery was introduced about 3 years ago, and ironically my volume of US mail at that time had been and continues to be at an all-time low. Most of my communications with banks, credit cards, investment companies, schools, and other important accounts are done via email and their respective online portals. Rarely do I ever expect to receive important communication via US mail nowadays. That being said, I could see it potentially coming in handy from time to time.

Google Photos Rescinds Free Unlimited Storage

WAH! I’m crying like a baby as I write this. Google announced that starting June 1, 2021, Google Photos will no longer offer free unlimited storage space. Oh well, it was great while it lasted. Here’s a summary of forthcoming changes:

When Google Photos was launched more than 5 years ago, it provided 2 options for photo storage. The first option was to store the original photo, in which case photos were counted against the default 15 GB storage limit that accompanied each Google account (note that there have been ways to expand beyond the default 15 GB; my account has a 17 GB storage limit). The second option was to store “high quality” images using Google’s image compression algorithms, in which case users were given free unlimited storage space. In my opinion, the high quality option would meet the needs of a vast majority of people since the image compression algorithms did a great job of preserving image quality. I can honestly say that I could not tell the difference between the original and “high quality” compressed images without significantly zooming in to each image. Google later also introduced a third “express backup” option which further limited the size of photos. Read about Google Photos backup options here.

But alas, the free unlimited approach is not sustainable in the long run, so it makes sense that Google would eventually count all photos toward its 15 GB quota. Starting June 1, 2021, users will either need to delete photos to make room for newer ones, or subscribe to a Google One storage plan.

For a customized overview of the Google Photos storage policy, including your personal storage limit and an estimate of how long it will be after you run out of storage, visit https://photos.google.com/storagepolicy.

Real-time Food Delivery Tracking

I recently ordered a meal to be delivered to my home, and I expected to contend with the usual problems of not knowing where the delivery person is and when my food will arrive. However, I was pleasantly surprised when I received a text message from the restaurant that said I could track my order through VROMO.

As you can see from the screenshot, it is a typical map interface where you can see where the driver is located (indicated by the yellow “VR” symbol) in real time. While not pictured, you can also see your location pinned on the map. You can also click on the phone icon at the lower right of the screen to call or text your driver if needed.

One limitation is that you cannot see the driver’s intended destination. While my delivery guy was only 4 blocks away from me, he turned at an intersection and drove away from my home, so I figured that he had other deliveries on the route. I thought he was about 1 minute away, but in reality it was another 25 minutes before he arrived. It might be nice to allow the driver to enter all destinations and then show the customers how many stops the driver intends to make before delivering your food. This would also enable the app to provide somewhat accurate estimates of arrival times.

In any case, VROMO is a step in the right direction and a welcome addition to a suite of technologies that make it easier to have food delivered to your home.

Live Presidential Election Coverage

Today is November 3, 2020 which means that it is Election Day. While you can read and watch in depth coverage of election results across the U.S. from various television and radio stations and websites which feature detailed analyses and forecasts, there is also a simpler way to to see the latest U.S. presidential election results. Simply go to www.google.com and search for “election” and you’ll be presented with a summary like this:

In addition to the overall race to 270 electoral votes, there are current projections by swing state. Whatever the result, I hope you exercised your right to vote.