Mapping School Closures Due to COVID-19

If you’re a parent of a school-aged child like me, you might be impacted by school closures due to COVID-19. The folks at Education Week are collecting information about school closures in the United States and visualizing the data on a map.



If you’re a geek like me, you’ll be happy to find that the data are also presented in tabular format and made available for download. For a full-page version of the map, click here.

COVID-19 and Social Distancing Analogies

Normally I write about geeky technology topics, but since we are in the midst of a pandemic, I thought I’d deviate from the theme of this blog to share a few analogies related to social distancing which is one of our most effective ways of limiting the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19.

The CDC defines social distancing as “remaining out of congregate settings, avoiding mass gatherings, and maintaining distance (approximately 6 feet or 2 meters) from others when possible.” Given that a vaccine is still under development and possibly still a year away, social distancing is one of our best bets for limiting viral transmissions (in addition to personal hygiene, isolation, quarantine, and other measures). This article and this article address the concept of “flattening the curve” of the number of cases over time, based on how the cities of Philadelphia, PA and St. Louis, MO responded to the 1918 flu pandemic. While there are several excellent publications on the topic, I’d also recommend reading this article, and this article too.

I’ve shared these publications with many friends and family, and while many have embraced the concept of social distancing and are making significant changes in their daily routines, I feel that some people still do not completely understand its importance or have not yet translated their understanding into making immediate lifestyle changes. Therefore, I’d like to offer 3 analogies in hopes that 1 or more of them help to drive home the point.

Analogy #1: Herd Immunity

Immunizations are given to prevent the spread of infectious diseases for both individuals and populations. While most people understand the benefit of immunizations for themselves (e.g., prevention of influenza, measles, varicella, polio, and many other infectious diseases), it is often necessary to remind people that if a sufficient portion of the population is immunized, it confers protection to those who those who are unable to receive immunizations, often due to a compromised immune system. This phenomenon is known as herd immunity.

When an individual decides not to immunize, it weakens the effect of herd immunity. Therefore, I view it as a social and moral responsibility to get immunizations (and when a SARS-CoV-2 becomes available, we should all get that one too, provided that we don’t have any contraindications). Similarly, I feel that everyone has a social and moral responsibility to practice social distancing. Yet, I continue to hear about people moving forward with previously planned non-essential social gatherings. This article provides one such example, but there are less dramatic examples such as family gatherings with elderly individuals or people with high-risk conditions. The prioritization of one’s individual liberties and personal freedom over that of the public good mitigates the effectiveness of social distancing and weakens our “herd immunity” to COVID-19 which means that more people will get infected, and more people will die.

Analogy #2: The Lottery

If you take the perspective of SARS-CoV-2, the propagation of your genetic heritage is dependent on having as many opportunities as possible to spread to other hosts. In epidemiology, there is a statistic called the “reproduction number” or R0 (pronounced “R naught”) which represents the number of new cases that are infected by one infected individual. Earlier this year, the R0 was estimated in this article, this article, and this article to be somewhere between 2 and 3 (plus or minus), which means that for each person with COVID-19, 2 to 3 additional people had been infected on average. This is a recipe for sustained community transmission.

The lottery analogy comes into play when you look at each opportunity for the virus to shed from one individual and infect another host. On a typical day, most people interact with many individuals at work, running errands, in social gatherings, etc. Most people also touch many things that other people touch such as doorknobs, coffee makers, elevator buttons, money, etc. Some people might also cough or sneeze into the air or perhaps be in close enough proximity to breathe directly into someone else’s personal space. All of these actions are opportunities for a virus to spread to another host. Any one particular action is a low-probability event for transmission, somewhat akin to the virus buying a lottery ticket. However, with enough opportunities, SARS-CoV-2 within a host will win the proverbial lottery 2 to 3 times and jump to additional hosts. Social distancing basically deprives SARS-CoV-2 of lottery tickets and helps drive the R0 to less than 1 so that viral transmissions eventually peter out.

Analogy #3: Game Theory

Game theory is the study of mathematical probabilities and decision-making between individuals or groups. It was initially applied to economic scenarios and extended to military decision-making and other fields. It is perhaps best illustrated through games like chicken and poker, and for a classic example of an application of game theory, read this description of the prisoner’s dilemma.

Let’s imagine a game theory scenario for social distancing. In this case, we have multiple participants consisting of everyone in a community, state, country, or even the entire world for that matter. The number of participants doesn’t really matter, but what does matter is when we look at 1 person who is faced with a choice to ignore or follow recommendations to practice social distancing. If that individual ignores (or is simply unaware of) recommendations to avoid crowds and maintain distance from others, then that individual may achieve some gain (e.g., connectedness with other humans, traveling somewhere new, enjoying a movie) at the expense of giving SARS-CoV-2 more opportunities to spread which translates to a public disadvantage.

Summary

I am certainly not suggesting that we cut off all ties to other human beings in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are also certain things that we must still do out of necessity such as going to work (if remote work is not an option), shopping for groceries, taking care of friends and loved ones who need assistance, etc. I am also not suggesting that we blame people who take less extensive precautions than we do. We are social animals and thrive on human interactions. We also have our own tolerances for change in different scenarios. Therefore, social distancing is not a binary measure. There are degrees to which we can practice social distancing, and the more strictly we adhere to it, the more we will limit the spread of COVID-19 and save lives. It all boils down to a numbers game. How effectively will we play the game? Time will tell. Be safe everyone!

Dashboard Visualization of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory illness that is caused by a virus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). A summary of the disease along with recommendations for diagnosis and prevention is provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) here.

The spread of COVID-19 has been progressing at an alarming rate. In January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) which means that it constitutes a public health risk through the international spread of disease, and it potentially requires a coordinated international response. Today the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic which the CDC and these authors define as an epidemic that spreads over several countries or continents. In short, COVID-19 is out of control, people are worried, and we need to act quickly to minimize further illness, death, and the downstream impact on our local communities, our country, and the rest of the world.

There are many aspects of COVID-19 diagnosis, treatment, and prevention that demand our attention and resources. One fundamental need during any infectious disease outbreak is to track cases over time. Peter Drucker is credited with saying, "you can't manage what you can't measure," and the principle definitely applies here.

Thanks to an engineering team at Johns Hopkins University, it is now possible for researchers, public health authorities, and the general public to access to an online interactive dashboard that can be used to visualize and track COVID-19 cases in near-real time. Here's a screenshot, and if you visit the dashboard, I think you'll find it fairly self-explanatory.

Initially the dashboard was manually updated twice a day, but the team has since transitioned to a semi-automated process that leverages a variety of data sources. A brief overview of methods are described in this article and this blog. The following figure illustrates that the Johns Hopkins dashboard statistics align well with figures provided by the Chinese CDC and WHO.



Hopefully we will start to see a decline in the number of new cases over time. To achieve that, we should all follow recommendations from the CDC including its Workplace, School and Home Guidance and its Framework for Mitigation. Be safe everyone!

April 24, 2020 Update: Here is another link to the Johns Hopkins University dashboard that contains some more features: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Share Your Trip on Uber

Given concern for safety on ride sharing services, Uber introduced Follow My Ride so that passengers and drivers can let other people know where they are. Sharing one’s ride details is pretty simple. During a ride, simply tap the option to share your ride or navigate to the blue shield to open the Safety Toolkit. After selecting your recipient(s) from your contact list, they will each receive a text notification like this:

Clicking on the link takes the user to an Uber website where the passenger’s origin, destination, and current location are shown in real time:

Other Uber safety features are described at https://www.uber.com/us/en/safety/. I have never felt concern for my safety while riding Uber, but I will encourage my wife to use this feature when she rides Uber.

Installing Microsoft Edge – Oh, The Irony!

I read that Microsoft released its new Edge browser for Windows 10 (and curiously for Windows 7 even though Windows 7 is no longer supported) today, and since I use Windows 10 for work, I thought I’d check it out. After navigating to https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/edge and clicking the “DOWNLOAD for Windows 10” button, I was presented with a dialog box with Korean text. This was ironic because the URL clearly specifies that the page is intended for US English audiences, and furthermore in the background it says, “It’s time to expect more” to which I fully agree.

Google Crisis Map

With the recent wildfires in Los Angeles and the current fires in Australia, I’ve been tracking developments on Google Crisis Map.

On top of the usual Google Maps technology, there are additional layers of information that users can display. Categories include:

• Public Alerts (emergency information including evacuation notices for hurricanes, storm warnings, earthquakes, etc.)
• Tropical Storm Information (hurricanes and storms, including current location and forecast path)
• Evacuation Resources
• Traffic & Transit
• Floods
• Wildfires

While it is currently mostly focused on US-based weather and events, there is coverage of the ongoing Australian wildfires.

I wonder what the Google Crisis Map would have shown in San Bernardino County on December 26, 2019 when we got stuck on the road due to highway closures from snowstorms.

In any case, I hope you’ll never need to rely on this resource, but in the event that it may become useful in the future, now you know.

Drone Registration for Recreational Flyers

Hoo wah! Daddy received a DJI Mavic Mini for Christmas. It’s my first drone, and I thought I’d share a few thoughts related to drone registration for recreational flyers. Since commercially available drones are still relatively new to the public and are growing in popularity, congressional legislation and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulations are still evolving. In this post, I share my current knowledge of federal requirements based on my cursory research. As always, you should do your own research and stay informed about federal laws and regulations as well as local restrictions before piloting a drone.

KEY POINTS

There are 3 drone weight classes that determine if and how you register your drone with the government:

1. 0.55 pounds (250 g) or less: exempt from registration
2. > 0.55 pounds (250 g) and < 55 pounds (25 kg): register online or by paper
3. 55 pounds (25 kg) or more: register by paper

According to Know Before You Fly, if you meet the criteria and fail to register your done, you may be subject to civil penalties of up to $27,500 and/or criminal penalties of up to $250,000 and/or other judicial action.

If you are a recreational flyer of a drone that is < 55 pounds, you may fly under either FAA’s Small UAS Rule (14 CFR Part 107) or Section 44809 of the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018. If you are not sure what kind of pilot you are, a User Identification Tool will help you figure it out.

The rules governing small UAS under Part 107 UAS Operations include:

• The aircraft must be registered if over 0.55 lbs;
• Must fly only in uncontrolled airspace;
• Must keep the aircraft in sight (visual line-of-sight);
• Must fly under 400 feet;
• Must fly during the day;
• Must fly at or below 100 mph;
• Must yield right of way to manned aircraft;
• Must NOT fly over people;
• Must NOT operate from a moving vehicle.

Section 44809 of the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 addresses an exception for limited recreational operations of unmanned aircraft. All of the following must be satisfied:

1. The aircraft is flown strictly for recreational purposes.
2. The aircraft is operated in accordance with or within the programming of a community-based organization's set of safety guidelines that are developed in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration.
3. The aircraft is flown within the visual line of sight of the person operating the aircraft or a visual observer co-located and in direct communication with the operator.
4. The aircraft is operated in a manner that does not interfere with and gives way to any manned aircraft.
5. In Class B, Class C, or Class D airspace or within the lateral boundaries of the surface area of Class E airspace designated for an airport, the operator obtains prior authorization from the Administrator or designee before operating and complies with all airspace restrictions and prohibitions.
6. In Class G airspace, the aircraft is flown from the surface to not more than 400 feet above ground level and complies with all airspace restrictions and prohibitions.
7. The operator has passed an aeronautical knowledge and safety test described in subsection (g) and maintains proof of test passage to be made available to the Administrator or law enforcement upon request.
8. The aircraft is registered and marked in accordance with chapter 441 of this title and proof of registration is made available to the Administrator or a designee of the Administrator or law enforcement upon request.

Fortunately, my DJI Mavic Mini is 249 grams (that is the aircraft takeoff weight which includes battery, propellers, and a microSD card) so I didn’t need to register it. However, since I took the effort to research the topic, here’s some background information about laws and regulations that you might find helpful if your drone weighs more than 250 grams.

LEGISLATION

Let me begin by highlighting a few aspects of federal legislation that was passed by congress and enacted into federal law.

The FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012 (FMRA) became public law on 2/14/2012. The most pertinent language related to drones is as follows: “Subtitle B: Unmanned Aircraft Systems - (Sec. 332) Requires the Secretary to develop a plan to accelerate safely the integration by September 30, 2015, of civil unmanned aircraft systems (UASes, or drones) into the national airspace system.”

The FAA Extension, Safety, and Security Act of 2016 (FESSA) became public law on 7/15/2016. Under Subtitle B--UAS Safety, “(Sec. 2202) The FAA shall convene industry stakeholders to develop, and report to Congress on, consensus standards for remotely identifying operators and owners of unmanned aircraft (drones).” Additionally, “(Sec. 2208) The FAA, in coordination with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), shall continue development of a research plan for unmanned aircraft traffic management development and deployment… The FAA, in coordination with NASA, the Drone Advisory Committee, the FAA research advisory committee, and unmanned aircraft industry representatives, shall establish an unmanned aircraft traffic management system pilot program.”

The H.R.2810 - National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 became public law on 12/12/2017. According to this website, this law reinstated hobbyist registration in that it “reverses the decision in Taylor v. Huerta (856 F.3d 1089 (D.C. Cir. 2017)) in which the D.C. Circuit found that requiring hobbyists to register their drones was prohibited under Section 336 of the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012.” It also gives “the Department of Defense (DOD) the authority to identify, track, and use ‘reasonable force’ to destroy drones near any DOD ‘covered facility or asset.’”

The FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 became public law on 10/05/2018. There were several changes under Subtitle B--Unmanned Aircraft Systems. “DOT shall develop a comprehensive plan to safely accelerate the integration of civil unmanned aircraft systems into the national airspace system and shall make available a five-year roadmap for the introduction of civil unmanned aircraft systems into the national airspace system.” Additionally, “(Sec. 346) DOT shall issue guidance regarding the operation of drone to streamline and expedite the process for the issuance of a certificate or waiver, facilitate the capability of public agencies to develop and use test ranges, and provide guidance of an agency's responsibilities when operating a drone without a civil airworthiness certificate issued by the FAA. The FAA may issue guidance regarding the use of public actively tethered unmanned aircraft systems subject to specified requirements.”

REGULATIONS

Next let’s look at some regulations by the FAA which is an operating mode of the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Registration and Marking Requirements for Small Unmanned Aircraft is an interim final rule by the FAA that was effective December 21, 2015. It “provides an alternative, streamlined and simple, web-based aircraft registration process for the registration of small unmanned aircraft, including small unmanned aircraft operated as model aircraft, to facilitate compliance with the statutory requirement that all aircraft register prior to operation. It also provides a simpler method for marking small unmanned aircraft that is more appropriate for these aircraft.”

Operation of Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems over People is a proposed rule that was published by the FAA on 2/13/2019. It “would allow operations of small unmanned aircraft over people in certain conditions and operations of small UAS at night without obtaining a waiver. It would also require remote pilots in command to present their remote pilot in command certificate as well as identification to certain Federal, State, or local officials, upon request, and proposes to amend the knowledge testing requirements in the rules that apply to small UAS operations to require training every 24 calendar months.”

Hot off the press, Remote Identification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems is a proposed rule that was published by the FAA on 12/31/2019. It “would require the remote identification of unmanned aircraft systems.” Currently drones that are heavier than 250 grams require physical labeling so a drone that falls out of the sky could be identified, along with its owner. A discussion of this proposed rule is available on an NPR segment of All Things Considered.

SUMMARY

Laws and regulations about recreational drone use (all well as commercial done use which is an entirely different topic) will surely continue to evolve. Make sure you stay current will all the latest requirements to make sure that both you and your drone are compliant with all the laws and regulations. For more information about drone registration, be sure to visit FAA - Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and FAADroneZone. Have fun flying your drone and above all, be safe!