Yet Another COVID-19 Calculator

I’ve previously written about web-based COVID-19 forecasting tools like this one and this one that predict hospital resource utilization and other factors. Adding to the mix, the folks at Rush University Medical Center have created a hospital resource calculator as well.

Based on data from Johns Hopkins University Center for System Science and Engineering which I’ve also discussed, this visualization forecasts the number of cases for each state. Based on a set of variables, the calculator can also estimate hospital admissions, census, and demand for personal protective equipment.

Rather than explain all the input variables, I’ll direct you to a blog that was jointly written by the folks who created the calculator. It describes the variables as well as their units of measure which might not be immediately apparent by just looking at the site.

As with any forecast, the accuracy is only as good as the fitness between the predictive model and what is happening in the real world. The spread of COVID-19 is complex, and we still do not fully understand the reasons why some people with COVID-19 do well and others to poorly. Nevertheless, when we broaden our view from patients to populations, we can see patterns against which we can create mathematical models to estimate what might happen in the future